In Taiwan’s most recent presidential election, held on January 13, 2024, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te secured a clear victory against opponents Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the newly created Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). At a critical juncture for the direction of Taiwanese democracy, Lai's election promises unyielding yet restrained policy responses to the People’s Republic of China’s desire to annex the country, along with other issues that impact Taiwan’s relationship with the United States and the state of democracy abroad.
Who is Lai Ching-te?
Formerly Taiwan’s 15th-term Vice President, Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as the next Taiwanese president on May 20, 2024. Lai received his medical training from National Taiwan University and obtained a Master of Public Health degree from Harvard University. Soon after, Lai reacted strongly to the 1996 Taiwanese Strait Crisis, ending his medical career to go into politics in hopes of steering Taiwanese political decisions in a more favorable direction. In 2010, Lai became the mayor of Tainan City, and when he ran for reelection in 2014, he garnered a record vote share. As mayor, Lai strengthened Taiwan’s relationship with Japan, Israel, and the United States by visiting these countries. Lai’s rise to power expanded his presence as a major political player in Taiwan, and in 2020, he accepted President Tsai Ing-wen’s invitation to be her vice-presidential running mate.
In 2024, Lai’s presidential campaign won 40 percent of voters. His campaign differed from his KMT and TPP opponents’ in several regards, the most notable being his stance toward relations with China. The DPP and Lai insist that Taiwan will only come to the table for dialogue if China abandons its insistent pressure to unify Taiwan with China. Lai’s statement on cross-strait relations contradicted that of the KMT—or the Nationalist Party—as it hoped to make concessions to China to avoid conflict and ease tensions. Furthermore, Lai seeks to continue the work of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, the first female president, who won by a landslide in 2016 and in 2020. In a famous campaign commercial, Tsai and Lai take a drive together, and at the end, she hands him the keys, a symbolic gesture implying continuity in policies if he wins.
History of the Taiwanese Party System
The longstanding differences in opinion between the DPP and the KMT stem from the creation of Taiwan and its party system during the 1960s. In 1949, the independent island of Taiwan was established as a result of a civil war on mainland China, where Communist forces led by Mao Zedong claimed victory over forces led by Nationalist Party leader Chiang Kai-shek. When Chiang Kai-shek and the last of the KMT fled to the island, they established a militaristic regime that acted with extreme aggression toward the mainland.
However, democratization slowly began to transform the island as Taiwan focused on economic mobilization and improvement. One catalyst for Taiwan’s economic growth was the education of Taiwanese students abroad in the United States. These students returned to the island filled with thoughts about democracy, spurred by the non-violent protests of the US Civil Rights Movement and the Vietnam War protests during the 1960s and 1970s. Instead of fighting for Taiwan as the true Republic of China—as the KMT had done decades prior—the new generation pushed for a full break from the mainland. In this “new” Taiwanese history that students brought back, all of China was the antithesis of Taiwan, and the Taiwanese people committed to procedural democracy as a model for political reorganization.
Issues at Stake
Lai's campaign focused on maintaining relationships with the United States and other democracies to maintain Taiwan's status as an independent and democratic nation. In his victory speech, Lai indicated an openness to speaking with China “under the principles of dignity and parity” and maintaining peaceful relations. However, his inauguration speech also demonstrated a bolder stance towards China than his predecessor’s. While Tsai mentioned “sovereignty” once in her 2016 inauguration speech and not at all in her 2020 inauguration speech, Lai mentioned “sovereignty” seven times. Similarly, Tsai said “Taiwan” 41 times in 2016 and 47 times in 2020, while Lai said “Taiwan” 82 times. (Referring to the nation as “Taiwan” instead of “Republic of China” demonstrates more respect for Taiwanese sovereignty; Chinese authorities therefore prefer the latter.) Lai also forcefully criticized China’s military threats and foregrounded democracy in his speech. His policy initiatives mirror his inaugural address; they include strengthening weapons and force infrastructures to dissuade China from attacking, expanding conventional capabilities such as naval ships and combat aircraft, and working to improve relationships with the United States.
Notably, US and Taiwanese officials seem increasingly nervous that Lai’s more contentious goals might risk deviating from Tsai’s more moderate line of politics. Top Taiwanese diplomat and “de-facto ambassador” to the United States Alexander Tah-Ray Yui asserted in January 2024 that the Taiwanese government wants to maintain the status quo: a balance of neither unification nor independence from China. Yui sought to reassure both Beijing and Washington that Lai would not incite a conflict that could spur US military engagement. The contradictions between Lai’s bold inauguration speech and Yui’s more moderate stance suggests tensions among top Taiwanese officials regarding the nation’s official posture towards China.
Lai is already facing pushback on his policies. His ambitions can only be realized if the Legislature Yuan, Taiwan’s legislative body, successfully passes laws that cooperate with the DPP’s vision for Taiwan. Winning a plurality with 40 percent of the vote, Lai did not win a landslide majority victory like Tsai’s 57 percent in 2020. Moreover, Lai’s party, the DPP, lost its majority in the Yuan. In this election, the KMT won 52 seats and the newly created TPP won eight seats in the 113-seat Yuan. To achieve the majority of 57 votes to pass legislation, the DPP will have to collaborate with other parties: namely, the TPP. Though the TPP entered the political scene in 2019 as a minority alternative to the two traditional parties, its recent electoral victories ensure the party leverage in legislative decisions because its eight seats in the Yuan must be swayed for the DPP to win a majority.
The TPP’s existence is indicative of an electoral issue facing the DPP. Though the KMT and the TPP never formed a joint ticket to overturn the DPP because this past election was the first time the TPP was on the ballot, the two parties’ combined votes could, in the future, lead to the DPP losing power. The creation of the TPP reflects voter fatigue and exasperation with the age-old rivalry between the DPP and the KMT, and this dissatisfaction may play a larger role in political decisions moving forward.
US Interests
Lai’s policies regarding Taiwan’s relationship with global superpowers inevitably spotlight the partnership between the island and the United States. For the United States, Taiwan continues to serve as an important bulwark against China’s growing territorial and political presence in Asia. Reports show that China is increasingly dissatisfied with Taiwan’s refusal to acknowledge itself as part of the mainland, and China has increased military pressure on the island. Chinese naval ships are edging closer across the Taiwan Strait, planes are crossing the airspace median line, and live-fire drills have increased since Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. Notably, Chinese officials criticized the Taiwanese elections at every turn, citing Lai as an unfavorable candidate and a dangerous separatist.
Additionally, Chinese officials are wielding diplomatic pressure against Taiwan’s allies in an attempt to isolate the island without the use of physical force. On January 15, 2024, the Pacific Island nation of the Republic of Nauru severed relations with Taiwan because their diplomatic relationship violated the “one China principle.” Nauru’s stance change follows Honduras’ exit from its partnership with Taiwan in March 2023 for similar contentions over sovereignty. In total, throughout Tsai’s tenure, China persuaded 10 countries to switch ties.
Because of mounting fears that China is increasing pressure on Taiwan, the Taiwanese election serves as a critical juncture for the direction of the country. Lai's commitment to maintaining autonomy balanced with a KMT- and TPP-majority legislature will send a clear yet nonviolent message to Xi Jinping and the Chinese government that the nation is unwilling to yield.
The United States knows that Taiwan is an important island in the Pacific to protect. The annexation of Taiwan would signal that global superpowers such as China can use force to redraw borders whenever and wherever they want. A Chinese annexation of Taiwan would damage the credibility of the United States with other Asian allies in the Indo-Pacific region. A war in Taiwan would halt the production of semiconductors and other industries central to Asian economic chains. Globally, the prospect of war over Taiwan rides on the heels of Russia’s ongoing attempt to annex Ukraine. The annexation of Taiwan would therefore compound a chilling precedent for democracies around the world.
Looking Forward
The January 2024 Taiwanese election has reinforced Taiwan’s commitment to maintaining a state of democratic resilience even in the face of mounting cross-strait opposition. As the Taiwanese people double down on democracy, this commitment inevitably strengthens their partnership with the United States. As the two countries move forward with a diplomatic and economic relationship, compromises, careful choices, and caution are the building blocks to successfully deter China. Taiwan’s future as an independent island nation remains critical to the security of liberalism around the globe and to the hegemonic influence of the United States. Only time will tell if Lai Ching-te’s presidential term policies will improve or worsen Taiwan’s challenges abroad and at home.
