Improved Immigration: Japan’s Solution to Its Population Crisis

“Japan is standing on the verge of whether [it] can continue to function as a society.”

In 2023, then Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed the severity of Japan’s population shrinkage. Japan’s population is plummeting—and fast. Since reaching a peak of 128 million people in 2008, Japan’s total population has been on a steep decline, and its working-age population is expected to shrink by 19 million between 2023 and 2050. Japan’s population is both shrinking and aging, creating workforce shortages and making it increasingly difficult to pay for a ballooning social security net.

Japanese women have consistently chosen to have fewer kids due to a variety of deterrents, including high childcare costs, long work hours, and stigma around mothers returning to work. Japan’s current fertility rate, the number of children a woman has on average, has fallen to 1.3—far below the 2.1 children required to maintain a stable population. Japan also has the second-oldest population in the world, and more than one in 10 people are 80 or older. When a population ages, pensions, healthcare, and social security costs increase while the tax base shrinks, making it even more difficult to fund essential services.

In response to this crisis, the Japanese government has tried incentivizing births by introducing “baby bonuses,” which pay expecting mothers 100,000 yen (US$670). Japan is also increasing the number of young immigrants allowed into the country to bolster the workforce and reduce the island nation’s dependence on older people in the economy. These reforms have not been met with the populist backlash seen in European countries experiencing shrinking populations, and most Japanese people appear content with immigration changes. However, Japan has also prioritized immigrants based on their usefulness—focusing less on their integration and protection—leaving newcomers to face language, cultural, and social barriers alone. Improved support for immigrants entering Japan will be crucial for the country's efforts to attract more youth from abroad and resolve its population crisis.

A History of Impeded Immigration

To achieve an annual growth rate of 1.24 percent—the government’s economic growth target—Japan needs 6.74 million foreign workers by 2040, which is almost four times the number it had in 2020. Japan’s history as an isolated nation often gives it a reputation of being insular, and until its population crisis, Japan’s immigration policy did not promote immigration. The government implemented strict immigration policies through the 1952 Immigration Control and Refugee Act, which generally only permitted immigration on work visas or visas given to individuals of Japanese descent or with family in Japan.

In the 1980s, Japan became more attractive to immigrants with its rapid urbanization and economic development. Before 1980, Japan’s share of foreign residents hovered below 0.6 percent and grew to 0.7 percent in 1990. As more people attempted to immigrate, though, the government maintained its immigration policies and even expanded restrictions. In 1990, lawmakers amended the 1952 Act to tighten the requirements for work visas so that only high-skilled workers—not low-skilled workers, who had previously been allowed entry—could legally immigrate to Japan. However, this amendment set up a system of loopholes for immigrants to work low-skilled jobs that were becoming difficult to fill.

At this time, only low-skilled workers with Japanese heritage, mostly from Brazil or Peru, were allowed to enter and live in Japan. This exception created a backdoor for low-skilled workers to enter the country. The low-skilled workers who were able to immigrate, however, were taken advantage of through Japan’s Technical Intern Training Program (TITP). Implemented in the 1990s to employ short-term foreign workers and teach them Japanese business and technical skills, the program became an exploitative system of cheap labor. Many workers were paid below the minimum wage and worked in unsafe conditions for long hours. The goal of TITP was not permanent immigration, but rather training foreign workers to bring new technical skills back to their home countries.

Foreign workers in Japan during this era also lacked access to many social benefits. Until the 1970s and 80s, immigrants and foreign residents were barred from public housing, healthcare, and public sector jobs. Foreigners not only faced rough working conditions but also were incentivized to leave the country. After the 2008 Great Recession, Japan implemented a “pay to leave” initiative that compensated low-skilled foreign workers US$3,000 to encourage them to leave the country. By 2010, roughly 20,000 foreign workers had emigrated from Japan through the program. That same year, Japan’s foreign population reached two million and made up 1.68 percent of Japan’s population.

Recruitment and Retention

In light of its population dilemmas, the Japanese government has increased immigrant recruitment and retention efforts to attract foreign workers and incentivize them to stay in the country, especially in key industries such as healthcare and construction. These efforts include issuing more short-term visas, increasing the maximum residency period from three to five years, and shifting the immigrant registration system from the local to the national government to remove the requirement for re-entry permits. Japan is also attempting to attract more students from abroad by offering them special visas for their job searches after graduation. While COVID-19 travel restrictions drastically lowered the volume of foreign students in Japan, their numbers surged by 20.8 percent between 2022 and 2023. As of May 2023, there were 279,274 foreign students in Japan; the government aims to receive 400,000 foreign students by 2033. These students hold part-time positions in Japan’s economy and often remain in Japan after graduation.

Japan has also prioritized the recruitment of workers who fill specific labor shortages in Japan’s economy through its Specified Skilled Worker (SSW) and High Skilled Foreign Professionals (HSFP) programs. The SSW program, created in 2019, offers an up to five-year visa status that attempts to attract middle-skilled workers in industries such as construction, agriculture, nursing, and food service. Support for SSW workers includes housing, an orientation program in Japan, communication networks, and salaries comparable to those of Japanese workers. However, to qualify for this program, workers must pass a Japanese language proficiency test, which is often difficult for foreigners.

Japan’s HSFP program, established in 2012, attracts scientists, researchers, business people, and engineers through a points-based system of eligibility and benefits that permits bringing family and domestic servants to Japan. The system requires 70 points across three categories: advanced academic research, advanced specialized technical, or advanced business management activities. Point allocations in each category are based on personal attributes, such as academic background, professional career, age, and research achievements. For example, a researcher with a master’s degree would earn 20 points in the “academic background” section, while one with a doctor’s degree would earn 30 points. A researcher 29 years old or younger would receive 15 points in the “age” category, while another between 35 and 39 years old would receive five points. Starting with the 2024 fiscal year, Japan expects to accept an estimated 820,000 foreign SSW workers in the next five years.

Technical training remains a key element of Japan’s foreign labor. Between 2006 and 2016, the percentage of technical trainees as a percent of the foreign-born population tripled. In 2022, trainees represented the second-largest category of foreign workers. Because of these reforms and initiatives, the number of foreign nationals in Japan rose by 11 percent from 2022 to 2023 and now stands at three million people, the highest number in Japanese history. Foreign workers will also benefit from easier paths to long-term residency. Partially motivated by human rights concerns, the abolishment of the TITP was announced on March 15, 2024; it will be replaced with the New Skill Developing Program for Foreign Workers (also called the “Ikusei Shuro” system). This new program—which aims to address Japan’s labor shortages—includes up to three years of training, allows workers to transfer workplaces, and offers foreign workers a path to long-term residency. This system will be implemented by 2027.

Public Understanding

The influx of immigrants is changing Japan’s demographic makeup. In 2000, immigrants comprised 1.34 percent of Japan’s population. As of 2023, there are 3.4 million foreign nationals in Japan, comprising 2.7 percent of the population. Today, in Tokyo, 10 percent of residents in their 20s are foreign-born, and in smaller towns like Shimukappu in the prefecture of Hokkaido, over 15 percent of the population was born abroad. Japan often has a reputation for being ethnically homogeneous and xenophobic, but there has been minimal backlash to these demographic shifts.

Many people understand the reasons behind increased immigration, and government messaging surrounding reforms has been clear. In 2018, under former Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, Japan passed new immigration legislation that intended to bring 345,000 foreign workers to Japan over the next five years. This legislation sought to alleviate labor shortages rooted in the shrinking and aging of the population. While anti-immigrant sentiment exists in Japan, especially among older generations, it is not widespread. In a 2018 Pew Research Survey, 58 percent of respondents said Japan should allow the same amount of immigrants, while 23 percent said Japan should allow more immigrants. Only 13 percent said Japan should admit fewer immigrants, and just five percent said they should not be allowed at all. Most importantly, 59 percent said that immigrants strengthen Japan through their work and talents. In a survey published in May 2024, 62 percent of Japanese respondents supported granting more visas to skilled foreign workers. Overall, most Japanese people support immigration reforms and understand their purpose.

Immigration Not Integration

While Japan has seen little resistance to the recent influx of immigrants, the country’s policies provide inadequate support to newcomers to integrate into the Japanese economy and society. Japanese policies do offer immigrants access to healthcare and permanent residential status—valuable benefits, especially compared to pre-shrink policies. However, immigrants also receive minimal language support, access to education, disaster preparedness training, and resources that help build an understanding of Japanese culture and customs. Japan is also the only developed democracy that does not have an anti-discrimination law or judicial body, which means immigrants facing discrimination cannot seek justice.

Moreover, many immigrants cannot become naturalized citizens, which would allow them to vote, become civil servants, and travel to and from Japan without permits. Children gain citizenship status if their parents have Japanese heritage, but the process of becoming a naturalized citizen without family from the country is difficult. For example, applicants must live in Japan for five consecutive years, prove their ability to make a living from their assets or skills, and give up all other nationalities. This means that children can be raised in Japan for their whole lives by parents who are permanent residents but not Japanese citizens. Stringent naturalization requirements can turn off prospective immigrants considering a move to Japan.

There is also the matter of Japanese work culture. In a 2015 study, half of the international students living in Japan who were interviewed said working for Japanese companies was unappealing because they often require long hours, discriminate against foreign workers, and have unique work practices—such as exclusionary social groups within organizations and the tendency to value seniority over work ethic—that make it exceedingly difficult to get promoted. Japanese proficiency is also a major concern for both employers and foreign workers, for the working language for most Japanese companies is Japanese, not English. In a 2012 article, engineering and science employers expressed wariness of hiring foreign workers because of the language barrier.

Immigrants—including those from English-speaking, Western countries—have also experienced “negative assimilation,” a phenomenon in which immigrants earn less and not more over time. In Japan, the exact cause of negative assimilation is still being studied. However, this phenomenon generally occurs when assimilation is impeded by structural barriers, such as poor education, and discrimination. As of August 2024, foreign nationals in Japan earned 28 percent less than Japanese workers. A contributing factor is restrictions on workers’ ability to change jobs, disincentivizing employers from paying foreigners equitably. Unemployed or stuck in low-paying jobs, immigrants also struggle to find new jobs in Japan since most Japanese citizens work for one company throughout their entire careers and seniority is valued highly in decision-making.

Supporting immigrants, particularly in learning the local language and customs, can create “positive assimilation”: when immigrants earn more over time as they become familiar with the culture and work practices in their host country. Language programs upon arrival as well as measures to address immigrants’ struggles—such as discrimination support and on-the-job training—could facilitate salary increases. Because economic integration is essential to positive assimilation, support with job transitions, work culture acclimation, and job mobility are crucial to the livelihood of immigrants in Japan. These efforts could also include campaigns to encourage employers to hire foreign workers.

While the Japanese government and people might not be against immigrants, Japan could provide them with better support. Helping immigrants integrate into the Japanese society and economy is essential for not only recruitment, but also for the wellbeing and economic security of immigrants. These goals, in turn, are critical to solving Japan’s population crisis and consequent labor shortages. Immigrants could play a pivotal role in funding the ever-expanding social security net and fueling the country’s economy—if they are given the opportunity and assistance to succeed.