Beneath the Surface: The Geopolitical Implications of Shifting Deep Sea Mining Regulation

As the global energy transition accelerates, the ocean floor has emerged as the next frontier in critical mineral competition between the United States and China, as both countries seek geopolitical and energy dominance. Modern economies depend on a consistent and constant supply of energy, and the United States and China recognize the importance of rare earth elements (REEs) in continuing innovation and energy security. REEs are 17 metals that are “key ingredients for glass, lights, magnets, batteries, and catalytic converters, and used in everything from cell phones to cars.” Contrary to their name, REEs are not particularly rare in quantity. However, these metals are difficult to procure as they are typically extracted from low-concentration ores that cannot be easily purified. Due to their importance for consumer and military technology, REEs have become a focal point for tensions between the United States and China. In the pursuit of REEs, US President Donald Trump, through an April 2025 Executive Order, has indicated that the ocean floor could become the newest battleground between China and the United States.

From the Past to the Present

From the 1970s into the 1980s, the United States led the production and refinement of REEs, processing roughly three times more REE than the rest of the world combined. However, as early as the 1960s, China took notice and began investing, taking over the United States’s historical dominance by the 1990s. In 2024, China possessed 60 percent of the global REEs market and processed 90 percent of the global REEs market. Seeking further REE supply, China has increased its investment in the burgeoning industry of deep-sea mining. Deep-sea mining would involve extracting rocky deposits called polymetallic nodules or manganese nodules from the bottom of the ocean floor. These nodules are thought to contain higher concentrations of transition metals and REEs. However, current technology remains in its early stages and is years away from mainstream deployment. The growth of deep-sea mining may also be slowed by many researchers’ opposition to deep-sea mining due to the long-lasting damage mining has had on previously untouched ocean floor ecosystems. Yet, global investment in deep-sea mining continues.

The International Seabed Authority (ISA) has historically regulated global involvement in deep-sea activities. The ISA was established in 1982 by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and a 1994 Agreement connected to UNCLOS. Under the ISA, countries are free to mine within their domestic waters and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), which extend a country's control over natural resource exploitation to 200 nautical miles (230 miles) from its coastline. However, because the highest concentration of rare earths is thought to be in international waters, the ISA holds significant regulatory power over deep-sea mining. Yet, the ISA is still developing its official policy on how it will approach deep-sea mining regulation, and it has not approved any extraction projects. As of August 2025, the ISA has only issued 31 exploration contracts, which are 15-year contracts that allow countries and corporations to assess the potential for rare earths in certain approved locations. These 31 contracts have been given to 22 contractors, with five of the contracts going to China through its government and companies. Geographically, 17 of these contracts have been issued to explore in the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone, which is located in the Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and Mexico, making this region strategically important. Over half of these contracts have been awarded to search for REEs through exploring for polymetallic nodules.

In 2024, ISA controlled deep-sea mining in roughly 54 percent of the world’s ocean through specialized contracts, regulations, and procedures. 170 member states, including China, comprise the ISA. However, the US refused to ratify UNCLOS in 1982, specifically due to its provisions on deep-sea mining, and is not a member of the ISA. Previously, this lack of membership was not a significant point of contention. However, statements from the US government in April 2025 resurfaced this issue of deep-sea mining regulation.

China’s Energy Motivations

China is increasingly motivated to lead the energy transition for key strategic reasons. China’s investment in a future without fossil fuels can be explained by China’s desire to both decrease its dependence on foreign energy imports and increase global dependence on Chinese green technology.

Despite being the largest global coal producer, China is a net importer of all forms of fossil fuels. China was the world’s largest liquid natural gas (LNG) importer in 2024. China attempts to abate this liability by investing in renewable energy when negotiating and dealing with other foreign powers. In tandem, a head start in renewable energy investment may provide China with the technological and market upper hand. Over half of the global electric vehicle battery market is controlled by China, and China manufactures over 80 percent of the world’s solar panels. In 2023, China’s investments in zero-emission technology were over double the size of any other country’s investments. China has invested heavily in innovations for electrification, battery storage, and other renewables, all of which are technologies that rely on access to REEs.

China has faced some economic losses due to this investment in subsidizing renewables. Yet, some investment is already paying off. In April 2025, the Chinese electric vehicle companies BYD and CATL announced they had created batteries capable of going 250 to 310 miles on a five-minute charge. Covering the same distance would require a Tesla to charge for three times as long.

Although China and the United States had the highest net and per capita emissions in 2024, China has outlined its plan to lower its emissions. In its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), China aimed to generate 25 percent of its energy from non-fossil fuels by 2030. Additionally, China has already met its goal of generating half of its electricity through renewable sources. Where the United States has sought to increase its short-term investment in fossil fuel extraction, China is investing in a future when fossil fuels cannot be solely relied on. Nevertheless, both countries recognize the importance of REE supply and have signaled their intentions to compete for access.

American Complications

President Trump’s second-term energy policy has decreased incentives for renewable energy sources that produce energy without emitting carbon dioxide or greenhouse gases. Instead, President Trump seeks to “unleash America’s affordable and reliable energy and natural resources” by expanding fossil fuel extraction as a means to assert that “Energy Independence is Key to National Security.”

As part of this platform, on April 24, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order titled “Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources." The executive order focused on making the US a “global leader in responsible seabed mineral exploration, development technologies, and practices.” The executive order grants the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the authority to issue domestic seabed mineral exploration licenses and commercial permits outside of national jurisdiction through acting on the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (30 U.S.C. 1401 et seq.) and Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (43 U.S.C. 1331 et seq.).

This executive order on deep-sea mining serves as an extension to President Trump’s earlier order in March 2025 to increase domestic investment in mineral production. President Trump’s previous executive order, “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production,” loosened Federal regulation on mineral production to increase the US’s ability to compete with global mineral production. In comparison, this deep-sea mining executive order uses the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act to allow the United States to issue permits for US companies to conduct sea mining and the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act to authorize the Department of the Interior to lease lands for energy exploration and mining. By allowing the US to issue its own permits beyond its national border in EEZs, this executive order positions itself against the ISA.

In the executive order, President Trump stated that a primary motivation, alongside supporting “economic enlargement, reindustrialization, and military preparedness,” was “to counter China’s growing influence over seabed mineral resources and to ensure United States companies are well-positioned,” exemplifying the growing tension between the US and China over REEs. In short, President Trump’s executive order bypasses international regulation, placing the United States on a collision course with both the ISA and China.

Chinese Response

In response to President Trump’s executive order, the Chinese government claimed that the order violated international law by going against the provisions of the UNCLOS that bind all other countries currently involved in deep-sea mining. However, China has not taken direct action against the United States, although conflict may occur once technologies move beyond proof of concept. China has become a powerful force within the ISA to the point where Chinese delegates successfully forced mining licenses to be granted despite popular global opposition.

Looking Ahead

Debates continue over whether investing in the technologies necessary to compete with China for an energy transition is worth the investment, particularly as oil continues to be the United States’s primary focus. Yet, regardless of whether the United States will eventually invest in renewable energy as it had just before Trump’s presidency, President Trump has positioned the country to put a new emphasis on deep-sea mining and search for critical minerals.

Deep-sea mining has been most connected to technological innovation, with military innovation and security being key to debates around critical minerals. Some researchers argue that allowing China to establish these mining operations in the Pacific threatens US military dominance while providing a greater monopoly for Chinese control over critical minerals, which are key to military technology. With Trump’s executive order, some experts have suggested that the entrance of the US into deep-sea mining “raises geopolitical risks for the industry, as any country could now theoretically lay claim to seabed resources in international waters.”

Although deep-sea mining is still emerging, the recent changes in its landscape suggest a future where the industry becomes yet another frontline for competition between the US and China. 2025 was the year many countries set their deadlines to begin commercial deep-sea mining, making the coming months critical as parties wait for the ISA and global regulations to emerge. Nevertheless, as the United States issues its licenses, the landscape will only continue to change, and the literal and geopolitical environment will undoubtedly shift, potentially irreversibly.