On Egypt: What Should America Do Now?

For decades, the United States stood by as the Egyptian government suppressed the freedom and democracy of its people, sowing anti-Americanism in the masses.  As the Egyptian people rose up, demanding greater democracy, the Obama administration succeeded in realigning its stance so as to support this development, bringing US policy into greater harmony with its values.

But what should the United States do now? The path to the future is not at all clear: there are numerous forces within Egyptian society gearing up for conflict in the process of reshaping the face of the Egyptian government, both in terms of its domestic policies and its international role.  The United States will inevitably be a player in this process and must choose its steps carefully.

A key driver in America’s past acceptance of the suppression of the Egyptian population was the concern, stoked by the Mubarak government, that a more democratic Egypt would lead to the ascendance of Islamist forces, in particular the Muslim Brotherhood.  Such an ascendance, it was feared, would ultimately lead to even greater suppression of human rights and democracy in the name of Islamic law, as well as hostility to the United States and to Israel. 

Despite the chanting of liberal democratic themes in Tahrir Square, these fears have not gone away.  Nor should they.  While it is unlikely that the Muslim Brotherhood has the broad support to quickly achieve a dominant role, polls show that large majorities do sympathize with many of the key principles of Islamist thinking including the goal of making sharia the foundation of Egyptian law.   Hostility toward US foreign policy, expressed by the Muslim Brotherhood as well as other groups, is widespread in the Egyptian public.

The US government has well-developed resources at the ready, with expertise and experience that can help facilitate the development of democratic elections. It may well be tempting for the United States to counter-balance the Islamists to favor the development of new liberal secular parties or to strengthen the existing secular parties that have formed a weak opposition in the past.  However, doing so would likely elicit a backlash.

Favoring secular parties would perhaps make sense if the Egyptian society were divided between those who favor liberal ideas and those who favor Islamist ideas.  However this is not the case.  The polarization between liberal and Islamist ideas in Egyptian society is more within individuals than between them, essentially an internal clash of civilizations.

Polls conducted by WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO), an international research project managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, over the last few years show large majorities embrace liberal democratic principles. Eighty three percent said that “a democratic political system” is a good way of governing Egypt and an extraordinary 98 percent agreed that “the will of the people should be the basis of the authority of government.”  Ninety-seven percent said that the will of the people should have more influence than it does presently in Egypt—foreshadowing the demand for greater democracy.

Support for liberal ideas of human rights is also strong.  WPO found eight in ten saying that it is important that people have the right “to express any opinion, including criticisms of the government or religious leaders.” Nine in ten said that it is important for “women to have full equality of rights compared to men.” And the same number said that “people of any religion should be free to worship according to their own beliefs.”

But equally large majorities also embrace Islamist ideas, some of which seem on their face to contradict liberal principles.  Ninety-two percent agreed that “Islam should play a central role in the government.” Contrary to the principle that the will of the people should be the basis of government, a Gallup poll found that two-thirds said that sharia should not only be one source but “the only source of legislation.” WPO found six in ten saying that sharia should play a greater role in the Egyptian government than it presently does and three quarters saying that all laws should be subject to approved by a council of Islamic scholars who would determine whether the law conforms to Islamic law.

Clearly there are large numbers of Egyptians that endorse both liberal and Islamist views even when they are arguably at odds with each other.  Because both of these ideas exist within most Egyptian individuals, were the US to try to promote liberal secular forces in Egypt, it would likely elicit a counter-reaction that would harden commitment to Islamist ideas.  Egyptians are already wary of American intentions: 82 percent told WPO that they think it is a US goal to “make Muslim societies less Islamic.”