KRISTEN EICHENSEHR is a Senior Editor at the Harvard International Review.
Riding a Harley-Davidson, watching the American television sitcom "Dharma & Greg," holding a medical degree-none of these are customarily associated with a Middle East leader, but that stereotype is changing.
The old generation of long-reigning leaders in the Middle East is now giving way to a younger generation composed, in many cases, of their sons.The old leaders shared a common heritage of military combat, hard-line political views, and established bases of political and military support. In contrast, the rising leaders share traditions of Western education, an interest in technology, and untested governing ability. In many ways, they have more in common with each other than with their predecessors, and their energy and new ideas offer the region an opportunity to make progress on several fronts. But first, the new leaders will have to prove their abilities and battle entrenched opposition.
The older generation was hardened by years of fighting for power in both the military and political arenas. Their sons, on the other hand, did not spend their youth in vicious struggles for state survival, but instead in British and US educational institutions. Two young leaders who have recently come to power are King Abdullah II of Jordan, who took over after the death of his father, King Hussein, in February 1999, and President Bashar Assad of Syria, who came to power in June 2000 after the death of his father, President Hafez al-Assad. While many of their early promises for reform remain unfulfilled, their new philosophies have begun to liberalize their countries. Their experiences growing up in politically stable Western countries, removed from the daily governance of their home nations, gave them exposure to Western cultures decidedly more liberal than their own. Abdullah enjoys American sitcoms, soccer, and Harley-Davidson motorcycles. Assad is commonly referred to as "Dr. Bashar" because he was trained as an ophthalmologist at a British medical school; he had no interest in politics and no military experience until he was recalled from London following the death of his older brother in 1994.
Both rulers are fluent in English and have brought more liberal perspectives to their respective countries.Abdullah and Assad have attacked corruption within the governments they inherited. For example, Abdullah frequently disguises himself to pay visits to government officials in order to learn how ordinary people are treated by the government Even before becoming president, Assad tackled governmental corruption by firing dishonest officials, including former Prime Minister Mahmoud Zubi, who committed suicide while awaiting trial. Assad also began to follow through on his promise to release both political and nonpolitical prisoners when he closed Damascus' Maze prison in November 2000. The toleration of some dissent among the press and of independent members of parliament-those members not affiliated with the ruling Ba'ath party has spurred hope for further democratization. But there remain many obstacles; for example, foreign news agencies are still censored and dissident groups remain unlicensed by the government
This new generation of leaders has also distinguished itself from the older generation in terms of its foreign policy. Before the death of Hafez al-Assad, Abdullah tried his hand at regional politics by playing an active part in encouraging negotiations between Syria and Israel, and both sides accepted him as a mediator. He continued to build a relationship with Syria by meeting personally with Assad soon after his election, and he strengthened his relationship with Israel by quelling the terrorist group Hamas and arresting its leaders. Assad is inextricably involved with Israel because of the continuing dispute over the Golan Heights, but he lacks the almost absolute political security that his father gained from decades in power, and thus he has kept his father's policy of making no concessions. As Assad grows more secure, he may follow the lead of his counterpart, Abdullah, and focus on establishing peace in the region, but he could also destructively choose to create further turmoil.
Neither Syria nor Jordan can afford to allow its economy to remain stagnant, and their young leaders-dubbed the "Internet Princes"-have pledged to support reforms, especially the growth of information industries. Presently, the Jordanian economy relies on tourism, phosphate mining, and potash production, but with the help of his wife Queen Rania, who worked for Apple Computers, Abdullah is working to make Jordan, particularly the area around Amman, the foremost center for information technology in the Middle East With Syria's oil wells predicted to run dry within a decade, Assad has also turned to technology to boost his country's economy. As part of his program, he has promised to make the Internet available to all Syrians, albeit with heavy censorship. With Assad preoccupied by other issues, however, his plan has stalled, and Internet access remains restricted. Peace in the region would jump-start the economies of both Syria and Jordan because it would increase trade, but a liberalized economy does not yet provide sufficient motivation, especially for Syria, to make concessions to achieve peace.
Despite the promise that Abdullah and Assad have shown, both must overcome domestic problems before they can focus on broader regional issues.Abdullah has made progress reforming the Jordanian economy and has secured Jordan's accession to the World Trade Organization, but improvements to the education system and the forgiving of foreign debts are needed before Jordan can become a true economic power. Abdullah must also confront the problems of Jordan's Palestinian population, which does not have full political rights; many hope that Rania, who is of Palestinian descent, will aid in this process of inclusion. Abdullah may face opposition from Islamic fundamentalist groups; Assad is in a similar situation, because Syria's Muslim Brotherhood appears to be reviving after a nearly 20-year lull. Assad must also tackle entrenched opposition from powerful elites whose sources of revenue would be cut off under his reforms, as well as dissent over Syria's continuing military presence in Lebanon.
In the near future, control of other Middle Eastern countries is expected to pass from father to son, and only time will tell if these countries can prosper under youthful leadership. Mohammed VI inherited the throne of Morocco from his father in 1999, while Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Colonel Muammar Qaddafi of Libya are training their sons as eventual replacements. In Saudi Arabia, septuagenarians King Fahd and Crown Prince Abdallah are expected to pass power to their sons within the next few years. The young leaders have been raised in a different era from their fathers, and they will soon control the perpetually turbulent Middle East. Although some cynics suggest that their leadership could disastrously destabilize the region, this new generation of leaders offers hope for new policies and a new era of peace.