Children in a refugee camp in Gulu, Uganda. Photo courtesy thetravellinged/flickr.com

Interrelated to global economic activity, international migration will be affected by the global financial downturn. As has often been the case, the poorest of continents, Africa, will be the site of the most damage. The world financial crisis will weaken African economic growth and food provision. A mixture of rising food prices, increasing difficulty to secure international loans, deteriorating export avenues, and shrinking labor markets will cause brain drain, societal unrest, and conflict. Unrest and conflict will exacerbate human rights problems and refugee flows, another kind of migration. Migration of all categories from and within Africa will increase strongly in the coming years. In the worst-case scenario, Africa will face a massive refugee and migration crisis. However, with wise acceptance of facts, domestic initiative and timely international help, it is possible to limit the recession-bound difficulties for African migration.

Scarce Food Supplies and High Prices Cause Conflict and Migration

Hunger-related migration, which refers to any forced or voluntary form of migration caused primarily by famine or food scarcity, is likely to occur. African food supplies have generally been limited, even in times of low food prices and global upturn. In February 2008, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) listed 36 countries suffering from acute shortages of food and therefore needing external help. Most of these countries are in Africa. Droughts, ineffective use of agriland, and labor force diseases (such as Tuberculosis and HIV) have complicated the scene, causing shrinking food production.

Simultaneously, food is one of Africa’s major export objects and foreign currency received in countervalue is critical for the very survival of the continent. Global prices have risen and will not drop due to the recession: developing countries with increasing populations needing food elevate food prices and also inhibit major drops in them. Food is a basic Maslowian commodity, affected by population growth but not by economic turns. Unlike cars, construction or travelling, the consumption of which can be cut in downturns, food is for survival in all turns.

Persistently high global food prices maintain the profitability of African food export, making it harder for the poor domestic markets to buy food. Henceforth, instead of feeding the domestic populations, Africa will export its shrinking crops to countries that are capable of expending the increased price. This also means that African food prices will remain much higher than prior to the global price increases.

Hence, in Africa, scarce food supplies have now paired with constantly high food prices, making life for many individuals in Africa intolerable. Due to such individual impossibility to find and purchase food, emigration from Africa will increase. Potential bases for near future hunger-related migration are already there. In Somalia, for example, the price of rice, corn, durra and other crops has more than doubled, while at the same time the value of the Somali shilling has halved. In other words, the price of imported crop may have quadrupled, making life next to impossible for the destitute, half of whose incomes goes to food. Another representative example is Egypt, where police used batons and teargas to end violent food demonstrations in the coastal town of Burullus in May 2008. The sharp increase in wheat prices has caused damage to state-supported bread deliveries, a service upon which many poor people in the cities are dependent. These examples will multiply if food prices remain high and if it becomes impossible for the poor segments of African societies to buy food. These segments will then have only two alternatives: either mount the barricades or flee. Darfur-type refugee camps may ensue, only this time due to food shortages.

Credit and Aid Problems Breed African Brain Drain

In addition, the global resource and financial crisis will cause emigration pressures at the skilled end of the population spectrum. Job markets for the skilled population will contract and African export companies will suffer due to decreasing European and US demand. Although Chinese and Indian investments have recently expanded the total foreign pool of investments in Africa, more than 50 percent of the African manufacturing businesses are still in European or US ownership. European and US production will probably be the first to shrink, due to the crisis cycle, but it is probable that even Chinese and Indian businesses will suffer. These ailing businesses will most likely be forced to decrease their employment of skilled laborers. But the shrinkage in foreign business is not the only way in which skilled workers may lose their jobs and be forced to look for work somewhere else.

Also, the public sector in many African countries will start to suffer from the global downturn. An ailing public sector means cuts on government projects, which will further shrink the educated labor market. This risks further brain drain, as a result of two aspects. First, it is increasingly difficult for the African governments to get international credit. For example, the 2010 World Cup football tournament in South Africa may be underfinanced, putting large infrastructure projects in jeopardy and making the job market insecure. Second, credit from institutional lenders, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and various UN bodies may become uncertain if these bodies face challenges themselves. Debt return payment schedules may be accelerated, causing further pressure for African national economies.

The slow-down in private and public credit, through cutting ongoing projects and reluctance to plan and implement new ones, will retard or altogether halt the job markets for workers in, for example, education, health, and social services. Emigration and brain drain will ensue for many, in particular for those qualified enough to already have international experience and contacts.

Brain drain may also ensue from the drop in foreign and development aid from the Western countries suffering from their own financial crises. Skilled workers in development projects may notice their jobs vanishing, due to decreasing foreign aid that funds their salaries. Emigration may then be the only means to remain employed.

Rising Unrest and Human Rights Violations

Hunger and food riots, the deterioration of labor markets, and the general economic situation are likely to increase societal instability, because the potential for societal unrest increases when people are hungry or unemployed. Examples of economic problems linked to societal instability are clearly visible in many countries. As of December 2008, a dangerous situation is brewing in Zimbabwe with the combination of economic, health, and political problems. Students may rise up to the barricades, due to lack of employment, as has happened in Greece. Lack of opportunities and unemployment, with consequent violent conflict, may lead to major refugee crises that could reach Europe.