Two thousand eight is the twentieth anniversary of some events that many Mexicans would prefer to forget, though some individual Mexicans who participated in them will probably never be allowed to do so. The presidential elections of 1988 were heavily rigged, and incompetently at that. The official party had stage managed election results for years, but voter discontent in 1988 was so strong that the authorities needed the help of a spurious computer breakdown to produce results that they could live with. Despite the rigging, we have a pretty good idea of what most Mexicans were thinking in that year. They were hugely disaffected with the status quo. Inflation was in three digits and had been in 1987 as well. Economic growth was stagnant. Living standards had fallen significantly over the previous half decade. Mexico had an essentially unpayable national debt. Meanwhile, Mexico’s political institutions were authoritarian, torpid, and corrupt. The authorities’ failure to respond adequately to the 1985 earthquake in Mexico City was scandalous, and Mexico City’s urban problems in any case seemed unmanageable. Mexicanologists north of the border were openly questioning whether Mexico would undergo some kind of political breakdown within a few years. South of the border, the weakened and barely legitimate incoming Mexican government adopted policies of free markets and democratization, with NAFTA membership playing a key part in the planned transformation.

It is hard to recapture that mindset today. Now, Mexico is macroeconomically stable. It is one of the richest Latin American countries in per capita terms, and its exports per head are more than double those of Brazil. Around 25 percent of Mexico’s GDP comes from the export of manufactured goods, mostly to the United States, and the Mexican economy is vastly more open than it was a generation ago. Inflation, despite some worrying recent signs, seems securely in single digits. There is a domestic credit market that works. The education system, while not by any means wonderful, works better than it did in 1988. Also significant is the fact that the number of Mexicans with degrees from first world universities is now quite large—well into six figures. Mexican universities are also much better than they were. As a professor, I find that the academic preparation of the Mexican students that I now teach has improved immeasurably since I began my teaching career in the late 1970s. Last but by no means least, Mexico is now a democracy.

It is important not to overstate the progress that has been made. Mexico continues to have major problems with organized crime, above all connected to the illegal drugs trade, and corruption remains a serious problem within law enforcement agencies (with not only the police but also the judiciary).

Considering the amount of economic reform that has taken place, economic growth rates have been disappointing. This is mainly because the economy remains significantly controlled by oligopolies, not least the state-run petroleum company Pemex. Most important, Mexico continues to suffer from severe social problems. Anti-poverty policies, although better focused than a generation ago, still fall far short of where they need to be.

It would be impossible to separate out Mexican membership in NAFTA from the other factors driving these changes. Mexico’s exports of manufactured goods started increasing rapidly when it entered the GATT in 1986, rather than NAFTA in 1994. Democratization would probably have come about—though perhaps in a different way—without NAFTA. Mexico’s population growth, which underlay a lot of concern about that country’s long term future, was starting to slow down well before 1988. It has slowed further and faster than expected, and not only because of the numbers of people migrating northward.

Yet, one thing is clear. The US government has a very strong interest in Mexican political and economic stability. It has quite enough foreign policy problems as it is. However, Washington no longer has to fear economic collapse or institutional breakdown in Mexico. Twenty years ago, a reasonable forecast would have had to give significant weight to the possibility of something of this kind happening. NAFTA therefore seems to be having positive effects, not just in encouraging trade and investment but also in underpinning political stability and social progress in Mexico—from which many millions of US citizens also benefit. This is something that US presidential candidates might be wise to note.