Gerald Nelson is a professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He has published extensively on biotechnology, the environment, and agricultural policy issues, especially for the developing world. For the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, he was coordinating lead author for its reports on drivers of ecosystem change.
Figure 1. Credit Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Most pesticides used today are much more specific to the target pest and breakdown much more quickly in the environment. Management practices have improved dramatically so that the residues on food, with a few important exceptions, are very small. So a decision to “go organic” in the 1960s had the potential for health benefits from reduced exposure to pesticides. An organic diet today doesn’t provide the same food-safety benefits. But modern agriculture remains less biologically complex than its predecessors, and ecologists point out that simpler ecosystems are more likely to experience catastrophic failure.
The policy decision by the US Department of Agriculture to create an official definition of organic food and allow a federally sanctioned label has had unexpected and far reaching consequences for the organic industry. One dramatic change is the “Wal-martization” of organic food, as that giant corporation and others have recognized a valuable market opportunity. Wal-mart’s entry into the business will inevitably bring change, not just to organic production, but to agriculture more generally. It could spur the adoption of information-intensive technologies in agriculture, and potentially hasten the reintroduction of knowledge-intensive local agriculture with attendant environmental benefits.
Conclusions
As the Millennium Assessment scenarios demonstrate, the possibility of a future with many fewer hungry people and food production that is more sustainable and more environmentally friendly exists. To achieve this future, governments must recognize the global consequences of agricultural policies and find ways to overcome the resistance of entrenched interest groups. It is disheartening to see the collapse of the Doha Round of world trade negotiations because it had the promise of moving agricultural policies in the right direction.
Technological advances will be a key part of a positive future. The genetics and production practice improvements that involve more knowledge-intensive inputs, including organic practices, will need to be location-specific. Citizens must demand that their governments allow the private sector to operate profitably while providing a regulatory environment that encourages sustainability, safety, and equality.
Humanity has made big strides in feeding a rapidly growing population. However, it is unacceptable to have 800 million hungry people in the world. The solution requires everyone to think and act globally, finding ways to choose policies and programs that enhance agricultural productivity globally, maintain environmental sustainability, and encourage technology development, while remaining vigilant about safety.
