The end of the Cold War hailed an era of uncertainty over Japan’s political and economic future. A receding economy, coupled with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) fall from dominance in 1993, greatly dampened the pride and confidence of the Japanese people in the 1990s. Current Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is seeking to revive nationalism and strengthen the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) in a country that has been staunchly pacifist since World War II. While expanding military powers may be an effective short-term distraction from Japan’s economic woes, remilitarization will create fervent domestic opposition and potential long-term regional instability—aggravating rather than curing Japan’s decade of economic and political turmoil.

Japan’s pacifist conscience stems from the carnage of World War II. A society grounded on honor experienced total defeat and seven years of occupation. Vowing to “forever renounce war,” Article 9 of Japan’s constitution, passed in 1946, deters any possibility of aggression being endorsed by the public.

With a threatening North Korea and very few regional allies, Japan is beginning to rethink its rejection of military power and its passive role in foreign affairs. The SDF budget is now at an all-time high of US$1.2 billion, and with a new constitutional provision allowing weapons trade, Japan can now develop a missile defense system with the help of the United States to fend off potential short-term threats from North Korea and long-term threats from China. Hawks within the Japanese government calling for these initiatives garner political legitimacy by also calling for economic reforms and deregulation—measures that the public believes will improve Japan’s standing in the global arena.

Although a nationalistic parliament may be Japan’s best hope for economic recovery, the Japanese government must be wary of a potential domestic backlash against an expanding military. Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has been relying on time to garner support for deploying 600 SDF troops to Iraq. From December 2003 to February 2004, public opposition to the SDF in Iraq fell from 88 percent to 46 percent. Regulation of journalists in Iraq facilitated this gradual acceptance. The Japanese Defense Agency requested that all Japanese journalists “depart immediately from Iraq” before peacekeepers arrived. Keeping the populace uninformed, however, does not mitigate opposition in the long run. On the first anniversary of the Iraq War on March 20, 2004, over 30,000 people descended upon the streets of Tokyo to protest SDF involvement in Iraq.

In October 2004, the beheading of Shosei Koda, a Japanese traveler kidnapped in Baghdad, brought a wave of press coverage regarding the instability of Iraq. Rather than continuing to portray Iraq as a country thankful for Japanese aid, the media began to question Iraqi security and the safety of peacekeepers in the Samawah. Since the Japanese associate violence with horrific memories of World War II, any future casualties in the SDF will likely provoke public unrest that could challenge Koizumi’s legitimacy. In a January 2005 poll conducted by Kyodo News, over 55 percent of Japanese people believed that Japan should withdraw from Iraq as soon as the Dutch security forces protecting Japanese troops leave. The Japanese Defense Agency will have to balance its peacekeeping operations with opposition from a majority of Japanese citizens once the Dutch forces withdraw.

In addition to domestic opposition, the remilitarization of Japan will likely bring about international disapproval and regional instability. China, North Korea, and South Korea still remember being victimized by the Japanese military during World War II. The possibility of a nuclear armed Japan, presently outlawed by Japan’s “peace constitution,” has reentered the public spotlight with support from top Japanese officials. Japan’s nuclear ambitions would add a new dimension to East Asia’s present fears. A belligerent North Korea and a threatened China would acquire more weapons and resources—leading to a potential Asian arms race that could destabilize the region.

Although the rallying forces of nationalism have raised the spirits of the Japanese people, the militaristic actions of the government will only divide public opinion. Reasserting Japan’s presence in the international arena may require strengthening its role as a peaceful negotiator, but breaking away from pacifism harms the credibility of Japan in the eyes of its people and its neighbors.