Quйbec, in an environment of globalization and free trade, has risen to face and overcome great challenges. In Canada, it must tenaciously defend its right to expression within what should be a true confederation. Elsewhere in the world, it must act to assert its identity and its right to belong and to participate in global institutions that shape the economic interactions of independent states.

In the ADQ’s estimation, the strategic, social, and political divisions that pitted Quйbecers against one another since the 1980 and 1995 referendums have lasted. Following the failure of the “yes” vote in 1980, the federal government, in a way, profited from division within Quйbec’s social fabric to employ constitutionally questionable powers. Following the undoing of the “yes” side in 1995, the federal government profited once again from the divisions within Quйbec to adopt a law on referendum clarity, thus limiting Quйbec’s democratic options.

The year 2005 does not promise significant change. Until now, Prime Minister Paul Martin, the leader of a Liberal minority government, has shown no signs of encouragement. He continues to pursue a policy of federal intervention in sectors that constitutionally fall within provincial jurisdiction, to accumulate astronomical budgetary surpluses to the detriment of the provinces, and to generally thumb his nose at the traditional demands repeated ceaselessly by Quйbec governments since Confederation in 1867.

As a result, today Quйbec no longer has the means to continue waiting for the goodwill of the federal government to undertake large infrastructural projects or to wait for federal financial handouts for economic and social development, especially in areas that fall within Quйbec’s constitutional jurisdiction.

Hydroelectricity

The story of Quйbec’s hydroelectricity resources provides the most striking example of federal overextension. Exploitation of these resources has effectively been put on hold because the federal government has decreed that it must give its environmental endorsement to all development projects in Quйbec. The decision to accelerate the development of large hydroelectric projects should be based primarily upon the needs of Quйbec and states in the northeastern United States. It should account for the fact that hydroelectricity is a much less polluting form of energy than thermal energy, its competitor.

In the context of Quйbec’s public finances, and those of the federal government, ignoring the urgency of hydroelectric development demonstrates a failure to recognize the potential economic gain from this resource. It is unacceptable that the federal government uses an environmental pretext and its current jurisdiction in environmental matters to prevent Quйbec from acting in a sector it knows well and is indispensable to its economic development.

Health

The same interference upon Quйbec’s autonomy affects social matters. The Canadian constitution accords the federal government no rights in health care, social services, or education. On the contrary, it delegates to provinces powers in the administration and distribution of all these services. However, the central government has consistently been involved in all these sectors, while retaining the provincial share of finances. Quйbecers no longer have the means to wait for negotiations between the federal government and the nine neighboring provinces before regulating urgent problems relating to health care and education.

The Quйbec health system is public and universal. The cost of this system is exorbitant—to the point of actually accounting for 42 percent of the provincial budget and more than seven percent of provincial gross domestic product (GDP), which, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is the third highest rate among countries behind only Germany and Sweden. Moreover, these costs will continue to rise as Quйbec’s population continues to age.

The most dramatically troubling aspect of the Quйbec health system is that it no longer heals its citizens and no longer will. Waiting lists for care are unacceptably long, with delays occasionally exceeding 50 weeks before hip replacement surgery. Certain hospitals in Quйbec show an occupancy rate of 200 percent of capacity, and waiting time in emergency rooms has on occasion reached 48 hours. An increased contribution of the private sector to the health care system can alleviate these problems by helping to reduce the number of emergency visits and dramatically reducing waiting lists.

Demographics

The ADQ sees a challenge equal to that posed by health care in Quйbec’s demographic profile. From just over 8 children per family in the 19th century, the birth rate fell to 4.3 children per family in 1901 and is presently at 1.5 children per family. For the population to be maintained at its current level, a minimum of 2.1 children per family is required. By 2026, Quйbec is projected to see its first negative overall population growth. Immigration helps somewhat to slow down the effects of demographic shock, but it cannot reverse this trend as it is simply insufficient to restore the population loss.

In addition to having a considerable decrease in the number of births, Quйbec is gradually undergoing an aging of its population. The median age, which was 25 at the end of World War II and into the 1970s, is now situated at 38 and is estimated to rise to 49 by 2051. By that time, more than 30 percent of the Quйbec population will be more than 65 years old. Intergenerational equity poses a serious challenge to the province’s future, and solutions that are not merely temporary are required. The effect of demographics is not limited to deaths and births—demographics affect the economy, culture, and society.

Public Finances

Quйbec’s public finances are also in a lamentable state. The provincial debt as of 2003 was calculated at US$105 billion. This represents a per capita debt of US$14,170. The sum per capita of provincial and federal debt rose to US$27,345 in 2000. The annual repayment of interest on the Quйbec debt represents eight percent of the province’s GDP. The long-term impact of this situation on our public finances is grave. There is no way to avoid the effects of this situation; that is, the burden of debt will continue to grow and inevitably reduce GDP growth relative to production potential. Without action by the Quйbec government to modify the status quo, this debt will inevitably lead to higher taxes in the future and may constrain state expenditure.