There is little agreement on the role of religion in ethnic conflict, or, for that matter, its role in politics and society in general. While some argue that it is a central factor, others claim that religion has little or no influence. The belief that religion is not important dominated the social sciences for most of the 20th century. Schools of thought such as modernization theory in political science and secularization theory in sociology had their origins in the formation of the social sciences as a basis for providing a rational and scientific basis for society and politics. These theories were supposed to replace the previous “primordial” religious and ethnic bases for society and politics. Only in the past two decades have social scientists begun seriously to question the assumption that modernity was causing religion to become an epiphenomenon.

Among those arguments that claim that religion is central, Samuel Huntington’s “clash of civilizations” theory is perhaps the most widely known. Huntington posits that the majority of conflicts in the post-Cold War era, including ethnic conflict, will be between several civilizations with differing religions. While Huntington’s specific theory is controversial, there are many other less disputed formulations that religion is important. This brief description does not nearly do justice to an extensive and varied literature, but it is sufficient to show that contradicting conceptions of the role of religion exist in the modern era.

One way to sort truth from misconception is to identify religion’s impact on a more narrowly defi ned aspect of modern politics and society: ethnic conflict. Too often are religion and ethnicity grouped together; to evaluate the importance of religion, each factor must be considered independently. Instead of using anecdotes, a systematic analysis of ethnic conflicts provides a better basis for analysis. This is done through a review of the general trends found in an extensive analysis of a data set gathered by Minorities at Risk (MAR), which contains information on 337 ethnic minorities which were politically active at some point in time between 1945 and 2000. While there are clearly more ethnic minorities in the world than this—some estimates run as high as 20,000—these 337 minorities represent all of those that have been politically active on a mass level and, therefore, all of those who have been involved in serious ethnic conflict. Unless otherwise noted, the analyses discussed here focus on the 1990 to 2000 portion of the data. It is important to note that the analysis presented here is a summary of a considerably more extensive, in-depth analysis of the MAR data than can be presented in this context.

Religion’s influence on conflict can take one of four forms. First, conflicts can involve identity issues which, in turn, can be based in part on religion. Second, conflicts can involve religious issues like religious discrimination, complaints over that discrimination, or the demand by a minority for more religious rights. Third, religious institutions can involve themselves in a conflict directly. Fourth, religion is often used by either or both sides of the conflict to legitimize their actions.

It is important to clarify some terms that frequently arise in such discussions. The term ethno-religious refers to those ethnic minorities that belong to different religions or denominations than the majority group in their state. Religious discrimination refers to restrictions on religious practices, not political or economic discrimination against religious minorities. Religious grievances are complaints about religious discrimination. Demands for more religious rights refer to demands that are not related to religious discrimination, such as demands for privileges not given to other religions. The basic argument presented here is that while religion influences ethnic conflict in a number of ways, it is not the primary driving factor behind ethnic conflict. These results can be broken up into eight general trends.

In Ethnic conflict, Religion is a Factor, Not a Cause

Of the 337 minorities in the MAR data set, 53 percent belong to the same religion and denomination as the majority group in their state. Another 11 percent belong to different denominations of the same religion as the majority group. Thus, most ethnic conflicts do not even have the potential to involve issues of religious identity. In addition, most ethnoreligious conflicts do not involve religious issues. Among a sample of 105 ethno-religious minorities, for which more detailed data is available, in only 12 cases is religion an issue that is of equal or greater significance than other issues. In an additional 27 cases, religion is a significant issue but is less important than other issues. Combining this with the fact that only a minority of ethnic conflicts are between groups who belong to different religions means that religion is a significant issue in only about 17 percent of ethnic conflicts. This trend of religious conflicts being a minority of ethnic conflicts is consistent throughout the 1945 to 2000 period, with little change over time.

However, religious factors are present in a majority of ethno-religious conflicts. During the 1990s, of the sample of 105 ethno-religious minorities, 43 percent experience religious discrimination, 69 percent complain of past or present religious discrimination, 22 percent demand more religious rights in their state, and 72 percent live in states where the use of religion in political discourse is considered legitimate. Overall, only 18 percent of these conflicts do not involve at least one of these factors. In short, while most ethnic conflicts are not primarily about religion, most ethnoreligious conflicts involve some religious factors.

Ethno-religious conflicts Occur in Ethnic conflicts

The mere fact that a conflict involves an ethno-religious minority changes the dynamics of the conflict. Ethno-religious conflicts tend to involve higher levels of discrimination and grievances over political and cultural issues, both of which are important causes of ethnic protest and group mobilization. They are also more likely to involve issues of self-determination, which, as discussed below, is a primary cause of ethno-religious conflict.

Self-Determination Causes Ethnic conflict

One of the most dramatic results from the analysis of the MAR data is that, unless an ethno-religious minority expresses a desire for self-determination, it rarely engages in terrorism, guerrilla warfare, or civil war. The only exceptions to this during the 1990s are the Shi’a minorities in Bahrain and Afghanistan and the Maronite Christian minority in Lebanon. The other 45 ethno-religious minorities that engage in this level of violent conflict all express some desire for autonomy during the 1990s. Even those groups that suffer from the highest levels of religious discrimination but do not express a desire for self-determination, like the Ba’hai minority in Iran and the Christian minorities in Egypt and Iran, do not engage in any of these forms of organized violence.