The Union Jack Won't Be Missing The Cross of St. Andrew Anytime Soon

On Feburary 4^th, the Scotland Rugby Team will stand on the pitch of Edinburgh’s Murrayfield Stadium and listen to “God Save the Queen.” The 60,000 tartan supporters, UK citizens, will remain largely silent throughout. A boo or two may even make its way through the stands.  Then with saltires waving and bagpipes playing, the Scots will proudly sing:

                        O Flower of Scotland,

                        When will we see your like again

                        That fought and died for

                        Your wee bit hill and glen.

                        And stood proud against him,

                        Proud Edward’s army,

                        And sent him homeward

                        To think again.

On this day, just as at the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314, the opponent is England. The auld enemy. This ancient rivalry, once fought with pikes and guns, entered the sporting world long ago and now wages within Westminster and Holyrood.

First Minister Alex Salmond’s Scottish National Party is pushing for a referendum on independence for the home nation. Ironically, David Cameron and his Tories, the bastions of unionist politics are also pushing for a referendum on Scottish independence. As with so many things in life, it all comes down to timing. The SNP want the vote to occur in the fall of 2014; whereas Westminster prefers a vote within the next 18 months. Cameron’s call for an early referendum turns national self-determination—the very foundation of independence movements—against the SNP. It may just pay off.

It’s all-too tempting to say that this vote is a boon for Scottish nationalists. But in reality this vote offers the UK government the chance to put the national question to bed for the foreseeable future. According to UK law, a national assembly cannot simply hold a referendum on independence. Westminster must vote to give it that right temporarily, something which the standing government is willing to do. And soon.

David Cameron is no fool. At least not in this instance, he isn’t. Sure, he’s betting that the Scots will opt for the economic and military security of the UK over the allure of complete autonomy. But any betting shop from Aberdeen to Edinburgh will tell you Cameron has good odds. Only a third or so of Scots support full independence and that figure has stagnated over the 4 years the SNP’s held power in Scotland. The SNP is no doubt aware of these troubling figures, which partly explains its preference for a later vote. The party must rally supporters not just to the nationalist cause, but to the cause of independence—two ends that aren’t necessarily the same thing.

A vote for the SNP does not inevitably make one a champion of a future Scottish state. Scots might vote for the SNP because the party is deemed better than Labour or the Conservatives. Or because they are in favor, not of independence per se, but of more independence. Simply put, SNP voters want the increased devolution of powers from Westminster, including taxation policy and welfare programs. The Scots aren’t willing to sever historical ties just yet. It is quite possible that greater devolution will eventually beget the desire for full independence, though the aforementioned polling data states otherwise.

Some three hundred years have passed since Scotland last stood as an independent state. Though still part of the UK, Scots now control their own national destiny. That destiny appears to remain a home nation of the UK, barring any more Thatcher biopics or discoveries of oil in the North Sea. While it’s too soon to call Cameron’s move a masterstroke, it looks likely that he was able to use the very principles and instruments of the nationalist movement—namely self-determination and devolution, to preserve the union. When the referendum does come and the votes are tallied, Cameron will be left smiling. And Salmond?

He’ll be sent homeward.

 To think again.