A Matter of Time
Yesterday, the UN Security Council finally passed a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Lebanon: this demand will be enforced by 15,000 UN peacekeeping troops. The UN resolution has support from Israel, Lebanon, and even Hezbollah itself. Though it comes one month after the hostilities began, the resolution is certainly a step in the right direction. The conflict has claimed nearly 1,000 lives (Lebanese and Israelis combined) and has threatened to destabilize the entire Middle East.
But the late passage of the resolution itself is not the biggest reason for concern. No time frame exists for the deployment of the 15,000 expected troops. Condoleeza Rice commented that "No one can expect an immediate end to all acts of violence," perhaps a tactful way of saying that the ceasefire will not take effect right away or possibly even soon.
With the American forces already engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan, most of the troops are to come from Western European nations. Their mobilization and arrival in Lebanon is a question of when rather than if. However, the extent of their duties is a much more complicated question. The peacekeeping force's charge to take "all necessary action" begs the question. Do the troops take an active role in permanently dismantling Hezbollah? Are they expected to end or simply control the organization's aggression against Israel? The resolution, unfortunately, is silent on these rather substantive questions.
Comments
It really annoys me when news services use the 1000 casualty count for both countries, because it makes it somehow seem like both are sharing equally in the war. In truth:
900 Lebanese have died, mostly civilians
143 Israelis have died, mostly soldiers lost in combat
There is a stark difference.
We should all be skeptical toward this "cessation of hostilities" as you have been Michael. Israel has the right to continue "defensive operations" which typically utilizes offensive tactics in the name of defense. Hezbollah is just supposed to stop, though, rolling over and dying through this offensive defense (remember the aid cease-fire? The one Israel claimed it could still bomb during?).
Additionally, there will be 30,000 troops, 15,000 of them Lebanese. The UN force will not have the right to use violent force to get its point across, meaning that they can only ask for disarmament. The Lebanese won't disarm Hezbollah, because they will not disarm and fight their own people, especially the only ones who defended their country. Hezbollah's philanthropic arm will help rebuild Lebanon, winning hearts and minds, and winning more share of the government's elected leadership.
I'm not really sure why Israel thinks this peace treaty is good for them. In exchange for more than 100 soldiers, they get the two they started the war over. They showed themselves to be completely unable to stop rocket attacks, even drawing more during their major offenses. And while they claim that they killed many militants, Hezbollah and its leader are still quite strong. It looks like Hezbollah wins this round. We can find peace if only the "cessation of hostilities" is actually what the words actually mean. But in the case of bloodshed in the Middle East, that is often unlikely.