India and Pakistan seem set to fight another round in their decades-long conflict.
A skirmish between Indian and Pakistani patrols in Kashmir has left an Indian soldier dead. According to reports, the battle has sparked continued fighting that lasted into Monday night and Tuesday morning local time. Combined with today's military casualty, an official Indian conclusion that Pakistani-backed terrorists were the culprits behind last week's bombings in Bangalore and Ahmedabad could quickly send things spiraling out of control.
The last time Pakistan and India's Kashmiri Cold War went hot was in January 2002, following the suicide attacks on India's Parliament in December 2001. An estimated 1 million troops (about 700,000 Indians and 300,000 Pakistanis) were mobilized around the disputed Line of Control. Both nuclear-armed sides prepared for all-out war, with menacing military maneuvers backing tough talk.
Thankfully, a combination of diplomacy and luck (the monsoons came) pushed war from the realm of possibility in 2002. For the past six years, the Kashmir disagreement has been played out primarily in the diplomatic theater. Yet the possibility of another fight has been simmering on the back burner for that entire time as well. Could now be the time when the possibility of armed conflict moves back to the fore?
With the first shots fired, the dogs of war may have already slipped.
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