My very first post for the Harvard International Review was about internal elections for the presidency of Mexico's PRD, the country's left-most major political party. The post was written on March 10, 2008. The elections were held on March 16. And the results were finally known just over a week ago.
That is, the internal process of selecting new PRD leadership was so fraught with corruption, allegations and counter-allegations of fraud, and lack of confidence, that it took nearly 8 months to declare a winner. And as soon as that winner, Jesús Ortega, was declared, the losing side declared him illegitimate. Indeed, according to the radical wing of the party, under Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), Mexico now has two illegitimate presidents: Felipe Calderón, illegitimate president of the country, and Ortega, illegitimate president of AMLO's own party.
It has been a bad year for the PRD. In addition to weathering a bloody leadership struggle for the better part of a year, the party has suffered electoral defeats in key strongholds, such as the state of Guerrero. Recent surveys suggest the PRD will poll badly in mid-term elections next year, and even the party faithful estimate that it has lost nearly 40 percent of the voters who supported it in the elections of 2006. Meanwhile, two of the PRD's allies, the smaller Work Party and an outfit known as Convergence, have decided to campaign separately in 2009 in an alliance without the PRD, leaving a long-standing left-wing coalition. Finally, the party also owes the government nearly US$3 million in fines for attempting to blockade streets and government activities in connection with the 2006 election.
With a new leader finally firmly in charge, the time has come to rebuild. It won't be easy. There are hard feelings all around. The losing candidate in the internal elections, Alberto Encinas, supported by AMLO, will remain in the PRD, but he has refused to take the General Secretary position in the party, which he was entitled to occupy as second-place finisher. He argued that the election was illegitimate and he could not in good conscience take up the post. It fell to an ally of the AMLO faction, Hortensia Aragón, to claim the secretariat. She did so while professing her feeling that the ruling in favor of Ortega was mistaken. The Ortega faction, for their part, has very publicly repudiated AMLO, arguing that they will no longer subsidize his antics (which included a takeover of the Congress during the debate over oil reform). Many PRD members had given AMLO cash to pay for his movement politics, but about 60 members announced on Thursday last that they would no longer do so.
On the other hand, AMLO's influence, which seemed to have peaked during the debate over oil reform, is clearly on the wane. He continues to parade through the streets of the Mexican capital, now on an agenda of lowering gas prices and increasing government transparency, but these issues do not have the hot appeal of protecting PEMEX from private investors. While Aragón may still be talking tough, the reality is that she, and other currents within the party, need to work together with Ortega to avoid a bloodbath in mid-term elections next year. AMLO may put on a good show, but he has largely become marginal to electoral politics of late. Other PRD members cannot rally their supporters in the street on a whim; they need to win elections to stay in power. The party's brand and organization are essential for most perredistas, and Ortega will have control over these. For the party's sake, he needs to use these tools well. This will do more to legitimate his reign than anything else.
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Comments
November 30, 2008 by eljefejesus (not verified),
It is hard for that other comment to argue that it has been a good year for the PRD, but it does hint that it may be a change leading to better times.
Now as for the country as a whole, the marginilization of destabilizing radical populist politicians from a major party is VERY good news for Mexico, in the midst of tough economic times and rampant drug violence continuing its decades long excalation, it also points to a promising future.
The PRI, for its pragmatic cooperation with the ruling party, is getting rewarded for pushing reforms, and the PAN is facing its typical party-in-power challenge from the economy that dragged down the world and spelled John McCain's defeat in the US elections.
The electoral reforms make the major parties more important than the minor parties taht the radicals are deserting to.
The many economic, legislative, and judicial reforms have pointed to a promising future for Mexico and its poor, the rate of poverty having already fallen dramatically over the last 13 years.
The avoidance of crisis from populist spending splurges such as AMLO had proposed, including social-security stipends for the elderly keep Mexico on pace to meet it millenium poverty-reduction goals, one of few such countries.
One it raises its growth rates with its economic reforms, there will be more room for provrty-reduction.
Who loses from the marginilization of extremists in Mexican national parties? The politicians that had used populist techniques as their bread and butter to get elected, who promised short-term, unrelastic solutions to everyone which would once again have proved temporary and illusory.
November 28, 2008 by T.L. Brink (not verified),
In one sense, I think that this has been a good year for the PRD. It is true that their multi-party alliances are crumbling, but this is a normal feature of Mexican politics: the alliances rarely last beyond one election. It is true that the PRD has lost several important posts (e.g., the mayorship here in Acapulco). However, I say that the real democracy within the PRD is essential in saving it from becoming a cult of personality under AMLO. His power must be weakened so that the PRD can nominate a winning presidential candidate in 2012 and can win other elections between now and then.