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September 24, 2007

Speaking Up at Columbia

Filed under: General, Middle East, National PoliticsMichael Jaskiw @ 10:55 pm

Today, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered his much anticipated address at Columbia University. Though the speech received a frenzy of media coverage, a dispassionate analysis of Ahmadinejad’s reasons for speaking in the first place was lost in a swirl of questions regarding free speech, denial of the Holocaust, Iranian involvement in Iraq, and the role of speakers at college campuses. Putting these issues aside, it becomes easier to see the event (and its reception) as an excellent opportunity for Ahmadinejad to build up his arsenal of rhetoric and propaganda.

The Iranian president managed to capture America in a catch-22, made possible only by our county’s commitment to free speech and free press. Had Ahmadinejad been denied the opportunity to speak on his trip (or had his event been cancelled), he would have returned to Iran with (at least in his eyes) a concrete instance of American hypocrisy. Once in front of a more friendly audience, he could have alleged that American values of free speech and free discussion were as empty as the US’s commitment to peace in the Middle East. This of course requires blurring the line between the policies of Columbia University and the US government, but conflating the two poses little problem when crafting a narrative of American duplicity.

But, having been allowed to speak, he also made some strategic gains. The hostilite reaction to his presence can be repackaged in Iran as indicative of general American hostility to Iranian interests. This is not a critique of those who chose to protest against his views. Rather, the point is that the images of the protest–(justifiably) angry groups of American citizens, signs with X’s through Ahmadinejad’s face–can be retransmitted as American bigotry and antipathy towards Iran and the rest of the Muslim world. Even the remarks of Columbia’s president Lee Bollinger, labeling Ahmadinejad a “petty and cruel dictator” can be touted as unfair insults levelled at a visiting head of state.

But both of the above points obscure the fact that on some level, Ahmadinejad is trying to play on the West’s terms. Anne Applebaum at Slate.com explains: “Ahmadinejad’s agenda is different, though, from that of the traditional autocrat…Thus, the speech at Columbia: Here he is, the allegedly undemocratic Ahmadinejad, taking questions from students! At an American university! Look who’s the real democrat now!”

The content of his speech was not terribly surprising or substantive–he danced around most questions with broad and cryptic responses. More important than the content, however, was the act itself. He has put the ball in America’s court. He has, at least on face, come to the US with good intentions–asking to pay respect at Ground Zero, and engaging in discussion. In the face of often brutal criticism, he was generally calm and polite. He made sure to share his views in an academic forum, adding an air of scholarly rigor and integrity to his views on topics ranging from the Holocaust to treatment of homosexuals. He made an explicit request for American students to come to Iran for a similar exchange. He was firm, but not bombastic or apocalyptic. In short, he used the forum and the media coverage surrounding it to subvert the image–created by those very same media sources–of himself as a dangerous and irrational despot.

September 9, 2007

A Chilly Climate

Filed under: Europe, New Kid on the BlocMichael Jaskiw @ 9:19 pm

This week, a Moscow court issued a warrant for the arrest of oil tycoon and billionaire Mikhal Gutseriyev. Charges against him surfaced after he resisted pressure to sell his company, Russneft, to the state–he explains in a memo to his employees: “”I was invited to leave the oil business ‘on good terms.’ I refused. Then to make me more compliant, the company was subjected to unprecedented hounding.” The hounding has now taken the form of charges of tax evasion and illegal business practices.

Though the details of Gutseriyev’s case are unique, this same saga–a Russian tycoon that contravenes the will of state and finds himself facing prison or exile–has been playing on repeat during the last few years in Russia. Gutseriyev, who has fled the country and is now in hiding, has learned a lesson from the last few re-runs. Fellow tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky was once one of the richest men in the world–after refusing to give up control of his company, Yukos, and supporting opposition candidates, he now finds himself locked up in an Siberian prison.

The situation is more complicated that it seems on face. The irony is that the charges against Gutseriyev, Khodorkovsky, and others have some merit. Corruption, fraud, and a lack of transparency are endemic to Russian oil companies and perhaps Russian big business in general. The disconcerting matter is that the law is used selectively only against those who defy the will of the state. Clamping down against corruption is a admirable goal–but in an environment where few are free from fault, charges of corruption and tax evasion have instead become instruments of political control.

These developments are obviously not positive for rule of law in Russia. Gutseriyev’s son died a mysterious death two days before charges were leveled against his father. Russian prosecutors are hot on Gutseriyev’s own trail, as he is rumored to have been in Turkey and England recently. The use of extreme and brutal tactics against Gutseriyev and his family are intended to send a message to other business owners who would try to maintain their independence. Though tragic, these implications are all too clear.

Perhaps the more interesting question is what this means for oil and Russia’s future. All things considered, Gutseriyev was a relatively small fish–he ran into trouble when he tried to buy more oil and expand his holdings without state permission. The Russian government’s reaction belies its keen interest to monopolize the oil industry. But squabbling has erupted over who gets the spoils of Gutseriyev’s arrest. Consultant Mikhail Krutikhin explains, “Before, there was a precarious balance, but now it’s a complete mess in the Kremlin…Putin seems to be a lame duck, and factions seem to be breaking away and acting on their own.”

Because the workings of the Russian government and its state-owned industries are rather opaque, it is difficult to gage whether this squabbling is a spat between acquisitive oligarchs or a sign of serious instability. But because the stakes are so high–losers risk their assets, their lives, and the safety of their families–the former may soon develop into the latter. As the reality of a Kremlin-owned oil monopoly approaches, Europe must also be wary of the consequences. Because it is highly dependent on Russian energy, Europe seems to be consistently losing leverage against Russian demands and prices.

The final question is one of economic theory. What does this climate–where allegiance to the state is the first rule of successful business–mean for the long term health of the Russian economy? Making money off of oil and gas, at least on face, depends more on control of land and infrastructure than on creativity, innovation, and competition. But if the Soviet experiment with state-run companies has any predictive value, then Russia may be destabilizing the base upon which it has built its recent social progress and economic growth.