Good Morning, Mr. President
South Korea elected a conservative president after 10 years of liberal rule. As much as the election of liberal presidents such as Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun reflected an almost euphoric optimism, the election of Lee Myung Bak reflects a widespread disillusion and cynicism. Even most of Roh’s supporters agree that Roh’s ‘revolutionary’ economic, educational and social policies failed to address the ‘polarization’ of Korean society—in fact, most data indicates that the divide between the rich and poor have increased over the past 5 years. This widespread dissatisfaction was reflected in the extraordinarily non-partisan support for Lee: a record high 48.7% of the voters supported Lee, and this transcended all party lines, generational divides, income divides, etc.
However, this does not signal a unification of South Korean society after ten years of violent ideological debate. The election functioned as a vote of no-confidence for Roh’s government rather than a support for Lee, as most of Lee’s supporters do not agree with his policies, or even think he is morally qualified for such a high post. Will Lee be able channel his current non-partisan support to deliver his promise of rapid economic growth? Or will the return of the Grand National Party, widely seen to be ‘elitist’ and immoral, alienate a generation of younger voters, creating a new opposition?
PyongYang Revisited
President Roh’s announcement to visit Pyongyang was another surprise attack on the Korean society–typical of the President most famous for his atypical remarks. With the struggle to free 19 remaining hostages in Afghanistan and the upcoming primaries decorating the front pages, Roh’s decision to revisit Pyongyang has received less scrutiny than necessary. The establishment of a civil economic community, which further extends the current trickle of economic exchange between Pyongyang and Seoul, has been announced as the main focus of the 2nd summit. Roh is expected to propose comprehensive plan of economic cooperation; however, expectations of success is very low among political circles, as Roh himself remarked “[…]the summit is not for immediate results[…]”. Then, what is Roh really trying to achieve by this second North South Summit with just months left until the presidential elections?
Premier conservative papers have criticized this summit as a mere political scam to change the political climate before the presidential elections. This is not an unreasonable criticism, for Roh’s own party has suffered a devastating blow in the past parliamentary elections, and its most promising candidates have left the party in an effort to form a second leftist party. Furthermore, the memory of Kim Jung-Il’s alleged remark to ‘cause harm’ if the South Koreans elected another conservative president, and the subsequent political clamor afterwards, still rings fresh in the ranks of the conservative politicians. The ambiguous agenda of the summit and Roh’s sudden announcement, which draws a stark contrast to the historic summit between Kim Dae-Jung’s meeting with Kim Jung-Il, only strengthens this criticism.
The recent delay of the summit has created more cynicism regarding the upcoming summit. As Pyongyang requested, and Roh agreed to, to delay the meeting till October, this puts the summit directly in the winds of the presidential elections. Currently, the Conservative Grand National Party has gained great momentum, selecting the highly popular and successful former mayor of Seoul as its candidates. On the other hand, the ‘ruling party’ has splintered into dozens of factions, each with a potential candidate of more or less equal strength, only to rejoin under a single banner. Thus, the newly formed ‘New Democratic Party (Minjushindang) lacks a strong representative of leftist politicians that can defeat the well organized and comparatively unified Grand National Party. It becomes understandable at this state Roh would want to pull off a ‘stunt’ as conservative papers call this summit to regain popularity for the leftist politicians.
Here, the question would be: who will benefit from Roh’s final ‘stunt’? The disjointed and chaotic array of leftist to central leftist politicians can be categorized not necessarily by ideology but by past loyalties. There are more traditional politicians who represent the opposition voice that put a period to the 50 year long rule of the Grand National Party by electing Kim Dae-Jung as president, past supporters of Roh who represented the ‘new’ Korean intellectual in the 30’s and 40’s who eventually betrayed Roh as the president became more unpopular, and yet another group which is a potpourri of a handful of Roh loyalists and ‘new’ leftist who left the Grand National Party as the conservative party consolidated its strength behind the mammoth candidates. Among these, Roh’s visit to Pyongyang would most likely give strength to the past supporters of Kim Dae-Jung, known as the ‘DJ line’. This assumption seems to gain strength as the previously dormant Kim suddenly reappeared in the political scene, consolidating the might of his past supporters. Roh’s decision to back the ‘DJ line’, which he originally broke away from by forming his Uri Party, is understandable as most of his supporters have been busy distancing themselves from his failed politics, and the young intellects he had seduced are highly disillusioned by his economic policies. Thus, Roh’s visit to Pyongyang would most likely serve as a nostalgic reminder for both leftist politicians and supporting citizens of the ‘good old days’ of when DJ almost seemed to have solved the puzzle of peace between the Koreas. Furthermore, it could potentially highlight Grand National Party candidate Lee’s lack of emphasis on the issue of unification.
Roh has taken South Korea through a bumpy ride, creating an image of a capricious and spontaneous politician. The proposed October seems to be his final ‘stunt’, again brewing another storm in South Korean politics. Will this storm deliver victory to the leftist politicians? At this rate, the Korean public does not seem to be ready to forgive all the mistakes and broken promises. However, Roh conquered the hearts of Koreans five years ago in a matter of weeks—who says it could not happen again?